The renewal rate is the number most subscription publishers watch, and also the one most often worked out in a way that hides what's going on. The calculator below splits it into the two groups that matter, then puts a rough value on the gap.
Overall renewal rate
First-time
Ongoing
- Subscribers lost this round: , about a year in subscription revenue.
- Each extra 5 points on the first-time rate is worth about a year.
- Each extra 5 points on the ongoing rate is worth about a year.
- At this ongoing rate, a settled subscriber stays about in total, on average.
How the sums work
A renewal rate is simply the subscribers who renewed, divided by the subscribers who were due to renew in the same period. The trick is being strict about "due". Count everyone whose subscription expired in the period, including people who were never chased because they lacked an email address, and exclude people who cancelled before they reached their renewal date (they're churn, not lapses, and worth tracking separately).
- First-time renewal rate is the share of first-term subscribers who renew. It tells you whether your acquisition offers bring in people who actually want the title.
- Ongoing renewal rate is the share of established subscribers who renew. It tells you how good the product and the renewal series are over time.
- Revenue lost to lapses is the lapsed subscribers multiplied by your average yearly price. It's a rough figure, since some of them would have downgraded or moved to a cheaper term anyway.
- What five points is worth is five per cent of the subscribers due, multiplied by the average price. It's a quick way to see whether a better renewal series or an earlier first reminder is worth the effort.
- Average remaining lifetime uses the ongoing rate: if 80% renew each year, a settled subscriber stays about five years on average (1 divided by the 20% who leave each year). It assumes the rate stays steady, so treat it as a guide rather than a forecast.
Getting better numbers out of your system
Most of the work is in getting clean "due" and "renewed" counts by renewal number. If your subscription system can't tell you whether a renewal was someone's first or their fifth, that's the first thing to fix. In Avio, our platform for larger publishers, every renewal batch is tracked from open to closed, so the counts come straight out. In Adeptis, our platform for smaller publishers, the renewals desk groups subscribers by issues remaining.
For what to do once you know the numbers, our guide to building a renewal series that works covers timing, channels and when to stop.
If you'd like a second pair of eyes on your renewal figures, get in touch. We've been working out renewal rates for publishers for a long time.
Questions
Why split first-time and ongoing renewals?
Because they behave differently. People renewing for the first time are deciding whether the title was worth it, and many joined on an introductory offer. People who have already renewed once or twice are much more settled. One blended rate hides both stories, and the fixes for each are different.
Should I count by subscribers or by money?
Both are useful. This calculator counts subscribers, then puts a value on them using your average yearly price. If your corporate licences are a big share of revenue, work them out separately, since one large licence lapsing can matter more than a hundred individual subscribers.
What about controlled circulation readers?
They don't pay, so revenue figures don't apply, but the same split works for requalification. Put requests due for renewal in 'due' and those who requalified in 'renewed' to see your requalification rate.
Is anything I type saved or sent to you?
No. The sums run in your browser and nothing leaves the page.